The Logic of Intelligence Analysis: Why Hypothesis Testing Matters by Karl Spiel

Description: The Logic of Intelligence Analysis by Karl Spielmann This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. FORMAT Paperback CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis.By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue.This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners. Author Biography Karl Spielmann is a retired Senior Analyst who worked in the Denial and Deception component of the Central Intelligence Agencys Directorate of Intelligence and on the U.S. inter-agency National Intelligence Council. He holds a PhD in Political Science from Harvard University. Table of Contents Preface: Revisiting an Old Problem: New Concerns, New Remedies Chapter 1: Maybe Its Time for Something Different Chapter 2: Strengthening Intelligence Threat Analysis Chapter 3: Using Enhanced Analytic Techniques for Threat Analysis: A Case Study Illustration Chapter 4: I Got Algorithm: Can There Be a Nate Silver in Intelligence? Review Intelligence analysts, those training for the job, and people interested in analytic tradecraft need to understand the intellectual challenges and pitfalls of predicting what adversaries will do. Even more, they need better tools. These are provided by Karl Spielmann, who brings to bear his life-long experience in the CIA and National Intelligence Council to show how we can improve analysis. - - Robert Jervis, Columbia University, USA Details ISBN0367606941 Author Karl Spielmann Pages 120 Publisher Taylor & Francis Ltd Year 2020 ISBN-10 0367606941 ISBN-13 9780367606947 Publication Date 2020-06-30 UK Release Date 2020-06-30 Format Paperback Imprint Routledge Place of Publication London Country of Publication United Kingdom AU Release Date 2020-06-30 NZ Release Date 2020-06-30 Subtitle Why Hypothesis Testing Matters Alternative 9781138601963 DEWEY 327.1273 Audience Tertiary & Higher Education We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! TheNile_Item_ID:135319971;

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