Description: Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it. FORMAT Paperback LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, and environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They cant solve their problems in their current context, which is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They cant transform this context on their own-its too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And the people whose cooperation they need dont understand or agree with or trust them or each other.Transformative scenario planning is a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. It enables us to transform ourselves and our relationships and thereby the systems of which we are a part. At a time when divisions within and among societies are producing so many people to get stuck and to suffer, it offers hope-and a proven approach-for moving forward together. Author Biography Adam Kahane had pioneered the development and use of transformative scenario planning throughout the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Australia. He is a partner in the Cambridge, Massachusetts, office of Reos Partners and an associate fellow at the Said Business School of the University of Oxford. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Transformative Scenario PlanningChapter 2: The Invention of This MethodologyChapter 3: When Things Arent WorkingChapter 4: Convening a Team That Can Shift a SystemChapter 5: Making Sense of What Is HappeningChapter 6: Constructing Stories about What Could HappenChapter 7: Finding Ways to Move ForwardChapter 8: Planting Seeds of Better FuturesChapter 9: The Paradox, Dilemma and Mystery of Co-Creating Review "I highly commend this book. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the confines of business strategy, to deal with wider social and economic issues." —Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, United Kingdom "All of our toughest problems, from climate change to inequality, have complexity at their heart. Adam Kahane, with his track record of work for social and environmental justice, has written a powerful and practical guide to using scenario planning to transform such problems. This is a book for those hungry for new ideas about how to achieve change." —Phil Bloomer, Director, Campaigns and Policy, Oxfam "We all face challenges and opportunities that can only be addressed with fresh understandings and innovative forms of collaboration. At Shell we have learned the value of combining scenario thinking with strategic choices. Building on his extensive practical experience, Kahane extends the boundaries of this practice." —Jeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell "This deeply human book offers tangible means for tackling the intractable problems that confront us at every level of life, from domestic and local to national and beyond. It offers realistic, grounded hope of genuine transformation, and its insights and lessons should be part of the toolbox of everyone in leadership roles." —Thabo Makgoba, Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town Long Description People who are trying to solve tough economic, social, or environmental problems often find themselves frustratingly stuck. They cannot solve their problems in their current context; the larger system within which they are operating is too unstable or unfair or unsustainable. They cannot transform this system on their own, or by working only with their friends or colleagues; the system is too complex to be grasped or shifted by any one person or organization or sector. And other actors whose cooperation would be necessary to transform the system dont understand or agree with or trust one another enough to work together. This book describes a powerful new methodology for dealing with these challenges. Transformative scenario planning is a powerful way for actors from across a whole system to work together to transform that system. It is a way for them to get unstuck and to move forward on solving their tough problems. Transformative scenario planning goes far beyond conventional, adaptive scenario planning, Often people find themselves in systems that are complex, conflictual, not working, and stuck. In such systems, people need a methodology not simply for adapting to the system but also for creating new, better futures. Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another, and thereby to transform their systems. In this simple and practical book, Adam Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it. Review Quote "Sixteen years ago Adam Kahane came to Colombia and worked with us on the future of our country. The four scenarios we built back then have come to life, one after another, and today we are living the best one. In this book Kahane explains how scenario planning can transform the future." -Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia "Kahane makes clear that the solutions to our big problems take our personal engagement, derive from our values, and reflect our connectedness to one another." -Bill Bradley, Managing Director, Allen & Company, and former US Senator "Every leader, policymaker, and citizen can learn and take strength from Kahanes central message: by working together, setting aside prejudices, and developing trust, we can change the future." -Trevor Manuel, Chairperson, National Planning Commission, South Africa "I highly commend this book. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the confines of business strategy, to deal with wider social and economic issues." -Vince Cable, Secretary of State for Business, United Kingdom "All of our toughest problems, from climate change to inequality, have complexity at their heart. Adam Kahane, with his track record of work for social and environmental justice, has written a powerful and practical guide to using scenario planning to transform such problems. This is a book for those hungry for new ideas about how to achieve change." -Phil Bloomer, Director, Campaigns and Policy, Oxfam "We all face challenges and opportunities that can only be addressed with fresh understandings and innovative forms of collaboration. At Shell we have learned the value of combining scenario thinking with strategic choices. Building on his extensive practical experience, Kahane extends the boundaries of this practice." -Jeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell "This deeply human book offers tangible means for tackling the intractable problems that confront us at every level of life, from domestic and local to national and beyond. It offers realistic, grounded hope of genuine transformation, and its insights and lessons should be part of the toolbox of everyone in leadership roles." -Thabo Makgoba, Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town Promotional "Headline" The first book in the world on transformative scenario planning. It is written by the pioneer of this methodology and one of the worlds leaders in scenario planning. Excerpt from Book An Invention Born of Necessity ON A LOVELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON in September 1991, I arrived at the Mont Fleur conference center in the mountains of the wine country outside of Cape Town. I was excited to be there and curious about what was going to happen. I didnt yet realize what a significant weekend it would turn out to be. THE SCENARIO PLANNING METHODOLOGY MEETS THE SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSFORMATION The year before, in February 1990, South African president F. W. de Klerk had unexpectedly announced that he would release Nelson Mandela from 27 years in prison, legalize Mandelas African National Congress (ANC) and the other opposition parties, and begin talks on a political transition. Back in 1948, a white minority government had imposed the apartheid system of racial segregation and oppression on the black majority, and the 1970s and 1980s had seen waves of bloody confrontation between the government and its opponents. The apartheid system, labeled by the United Nations a "crime against humanity," was the object of worldwide condemnation, protests, and sanctions. Now de Klerks announcement had launched an unprecedented and unpredictable process of national transformation. Every month saw breakthroughs and breakdowns: declarations and demands from politicians, community activists, church leaders, and businesspeople; mass demonstrations by popular movements and attempts by the police and military to reassert control; and all manner of negotiating meetings, large and small, formal and informal, open and secret. South Africans were excited, worried, and confused. Although they knew that things could not remain as they had been, they disagreed vehemently and sometimes violently over what the future should look like. Nobody knew whether or how this transformation could happen peacefully. Professors Pieter le Roux and Vincent Maphai, from the ANC-aligned University of the Western Cape, thought that it could be useful to bring together a diverse group of emerging national leaders to discuss alternative models for the transformation. They had the idea that the scenario planning methodology that had been pioneered by the multinational oil company Royal Dutch Shell, which involved systematically constructing a set of multiple stories of possible futures, could be an effective way to do this. At the time, I was working in Shells scenario planning department at the companys head office in London. Le Roux asked me to lead the meetings of his group, and I agreed enthusiastically. This is how I came to arrive at Mont Fleur on that lovely Friday afternoon. My job at Shell was as the head of the team that produced scenarios about possible futures for the global political, economic, social, and environmental context of the company. Shell executives used our scenarios, together with ones about what could happen in energy markets, to understand what was going on in their unpredictable business environment and so to develop more robust corporate strategies and plans. The company had used this adaptive scenario planning methodology since 1972, when a brilliant French planning manager named Pierre Wack constructed a set of stories that included the possibility of an unprecedented interruption in global oil supplies. When such a crisis did in fact occur in 1973, the companys swift recognition of and response to this industry-transforming event helped it to rise from being the weakest of the "Seven Sisters" of the international oil industry to being one of the strongest. The Shell scenario department continued to develop this methodology, and over the years that followed, it helped the company to anticipate and adapt to the second oil crisis in 1979, the collapse of oil markets in 1986, the fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of Islamic radicalism, and the increasing pressure on companies to take account of environmental and social issues.1 I joined Shell in 1988 because I wanted to learn about this sophisticated approach to working with the future. My job was to try to understand what was going on in the world, and to do this I was to go anywhere and talk to anyone I needed to. I learned the Shell scenario methodology from two masters: Ged Davis, an English mining engineer, and Kees van der Heijden, a Dutch economist who had codified the approach that Wack invented. In 1990, van der Heijden was succeeded by Joseph Jaworski, a Texan lawyer who had founded the American Leadership Forum, a community leadership development program that was operating in six US cities. Jaworski thought that Shell should use its scenarios not only to study and adapt to the future but also to exercise its leadership to help shape the future. This challenged the fundamental premise that our scenarios needed to be neutral and objective, and it led to lots of arguments in our department. I was torn between these two positions. Wack had retired from Shell in 1980 and started to work as a consultant to Clem Sunter, the head of scenario planning for Anglo American, the largest mining company in South Africa. Sunters team produced two scenarios of possible futures for the country as an input to the companys strategizing: a "High Road" of negotiation leading to a political settlement and a "Low Road" of confrontation leading to a civil war and a wasteland.2 In 1986, Anglo American made these scenarios public, and Sunter presented them to hundreds of audiences around the country, including de Klerk and his cabinet, and Mandela, at that time still in prison. These scenarios played an important role in opening up the thinking of the white population to the need for the country to change. Then in 1990, de Klerk, influenced in part by Sunters work, made his unexpected announcement. In February 1991 (before le Roux contacted me), I went to South Africa for the first time for some Shell meetings. On that trip I heard a joke that crystallized the seemingly insurmountable challenges that South Africans faced, as well as the impossible promise of all their efforts to address these challenges together. "Faced with our countrys overwhelming problems," the joke went, "we have only two options: a practical option and a miraculous option. The practical option would be for all of us to get down on our knees and pray for a band of angels to come down from heaven and solve our problems for us. The miraculous option would be for us to talk and work together and to find a way forward together." South Africans needed ways to implement this miraculous option. THE MONT FLEUR SCENARIO EXERCISE Necessity is the mother of invention, and so it was the extraordinary needs of South Africa in 1991 that gave birth to the first transformative scenario planning project.3 Le Roux and Maphais initial idea was to produce a set of scenarios that would offer an opposition answer to the establishment scenarios that Wack and Sunter had prepared at Anglo American and to a subsequent scenario project that Wack had worked on with Old Mutual, the countrys largest financial services group. The initial name of the Mont Fleur project was "An Alternative Scenario Planning Exercise of the Left." When le Roux asked my advice about how to put together a team to construct these scenarios, I suggested that he include some "awkward sods": people who could prod the team to look at the South African situation from challenging alternative perspectives. What le Roux and his coorganizers at the university did then was not to compose the team the way we did at Shell--of staff from their own organization--but instead to include current and potential leaders from across the whole of the emerging South African social-political-economic system. The organizers key inventive insight was that such a diverse and prominent team would be able to understand the whole of the complex South African situation and also would be credible in presenting their conclusions to the whole of the country. So the organizers recruited 22 insightful and influential people: politicians, businesspeople, trade unionists, academics, and community activists; black and white; from the left and right; from the opposition and the establishment. It was an extraordinary group. Some of the participants had sacrificed a lot--in prison or exile or underground--in long-running battles over the future of the country; many of them didnt know or agree with or trust many of the others; all of them were strong minded and strong willed. I arrived at Mont Fleur looking forward to meeting them but doubtful about whether they would be able to work together or agree on much. I was astounded by what I found. The team was happy and energized to be together. The Afrikaans word apartheid means "separation," and most of them had never had the opportunity to be together in such a stimulating and relaxed gathering. They talked together fluidly and creatively, around the big square of tables in the conference room, in small working groups scattered throughout the building, on walks on the mountain, on benches in the flowered garden, and over good meals with local wine. They asked questions of each other and explained themselves and argued and made jokes. They agreed on many things. I was delighted. The scenario method asks people to talk not about what they predict will happen or what they believe should happen but only about what they think could happen. At Mont Fleur, this subtle shift in orientation opened up dramatically new conversations. The team initially came up with 30 stories of possible futures for South Africa. They enjoyed thinking up stories (some of which they concluded were plausible) that were antithetical to their organizations official narratives, and also stories (some of which they concluded were implausible) that were in line with these narrativ Details ISBN1609944909 Author Adam Kahane ISBN-10 1609944909 ISBN-13 9781609944902 Media Book Year 2012 Publisher Berrett-Koehler Imprint Berrett-Koehler Subtitle Working Together to Change the Future Place of Publication San Francisco Country of Publication United States DEWEY 658.4012 Short Title TRANSFORMATIVE SCENARIO PLANNI Language English Series Agency/Distributed Publication Date 2012-10-15 UK Release Date 2012-10-15 Pages 152 AU Release Date 2012-10-15 NZ Release Date 2012-10-15 US Release Date 2012-10-15 Narrator Llewella Gideon Illustrator Terry Whidborne Affiliation Professor of Criminology, University of Manchester Position Professor of Criminology Qualifications QC Format Paperback Audience Professional & Vocational We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. 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ISBN-13: 9781609944902
Book Title: Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler
Publication Year: 2012
Subject: Business
Item Height: 85 mm
Number of Pages: 152 Pages
Language: English
Publication Name: Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future
Type: Textbook
Author: Adam Kahane
Item Width: 55 mm
Format: Paperback
